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India’s CAD Trailed Expectations In Q4 FY22; Estimated At $100 Billion Or 2.9% Of GDP In FY23: ICRA Thematic

BQ Prime’s special research section collates quality and in-depth equity and economy research reports from across India’s top brokerages, asset managers and research agencies. These reports offer BQ Prime’s subscribers an opportunity to expand their understanding of companies, sectors and the economy.

India’s current account deficit narrowed to $13.4 billion in Q4 FY22 (down 1.5% of gross domestic product) from a 36-quarter high of $22.2 billion in Q3 FY22 (down 2.6% of GDP), on account of a lower merchandise trade deficit and rise in secondary income inflows.

With a sharper YoY expansion in imports (up 45.5%) relative to exports (up 25.5%) in April-May FY23, India’s merchandise trade deficit has more-than doubled to $44.4 billion in this period from $21.8 billion in April-May FY22, partly led by a surge in gold imports.

We foresee the current account deficit to widen to $26 billion in Q1 FY23, from $13.4 billion in Q4 FY22, bloated by higher commodity prices. In FY23, the CAD may touch a fresh high of $100 billion or 2.9% of GDP, with crude oil price expected in the range of $100-120/barrel of oil, and growth of imports outpacing that of exports.

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