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Junk Bond Market Is Signaling the US Will Avoid a Recession

Between December 1996 and December 2021, there were 28 months when the economy was in recession, according to an analysis by Martin Fridson, chief investment officer at Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors. The median junk-bond spread during those months was about 835 basis points, or 8.35 percentage points, based on ICE BofA indexes. That spread is currently closer to 460 basis points, around the median level for non-recession months, according to his analysis.   

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