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Wilson also warned that although it usually takes a “full-blown recession” for the S&P 500 to fall below the key 200-week moving average, if the index fails to hold that level this time around, the rally may not materialize at all. Instead, the benchmark could slump to 3,400 points or lower — at least 5% below its Friday close, he said. Ultimately, he sees the bear market bottoming around 3,000-3,200 points.
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