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Time to Start Preparing for a Recession Is Now, Rob Arnott Says

The crux of the matter is that the Fed ignored inflation for far too long. The central bank’s own forecasting record is rarely better than an Ouija board, the duo said, and being late to the game increases the chance that it overreacts. In addition, many of the root causes of inflation right now stem from supply-chain disruptions, which higher interest rates cannot fix. A hard landing, in their view, means the economy goes into a serious recession, like the one associated with the 2008 crisis.

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